Its hard to be humble!

Well, as the man said, its not often I'm right but I'm wrong again. I humbly submit myself to you in sackcloth and ashes for what must now appear to be a widely extravagant prediction of a 57% Yes victory. However, what pleases me is that my assessment was not too far off given the very large turnout. As I said, I made my predictions on the basis of previous data, and my assessment of that data was very close to the final result. My error was that the original 22 point lead for No must have been accurate, and that still surprises me. My assumption of a deliberate distortion of the data was wrong. I gave the No campaign a 10% lead and that was the result, although I admit that I did think 10% was generous. However the other 10% that I was assuming would result in a surge for Yes did not materialise.  

In the end the final result was a close reflection of previous data and is not unexpected given previous empirical data. However, I am surprised that Glasgow for example, did not reflect the general turnout, and the people of Scotland may well live to regret that. No garnered a 10% victory which is very close to the 9% plus that the Westminster parties gained in 2011 and won by just under 390,000 votes. It is a significant result and I am glad that the final result was not very close, regardless of who had won. I am however, deeply saddened that all the Ayrshire constituencies voted No. It is hard to understand how that could happen in areas of such deprivation, unemployment and foodbank usage. But that is democracy!

However, on another theme I have written about, we now see Westminster in its true colours. Eighteen hours after the result they have begun to renage on what they assured us was a guarantee, a binding promise. They couldn't even mask their mendacity for a whole day. Despite signing a vow that was spread all over the front of the Daily Record, Cameron now tells us that the timetable the three stooges promised us is not possible and Miliband is taking the huff at Cameron's conditions which he never even bothered to discuss with the other two parties. We should have been alerted when they chose the Record for their announcement. Oh Scotland what have you done? You have assured me that we are Better Together with a parcel of rogues, a set of people whose word is completely untrustworthy and who are so arrogant and devoid of principle and shame that they don't even bother to hide it. You were warned but its too late now. Brace yourself for levels of betrayal that you didn't think possible.

Your Servant

Doktor Kommirat
Don't blame me, I voted Yes.

I suspect a plot!!

A friend of mine looked at me yesterday with something akin to pity when I told him I was predicting a 57% Yes vote today and asked if I was not afraid that I was going to look stupid on Friday morning? Not at all I told him, I may very well look stupid but I certainly won't feel it. How on earth can I come to such a conclusion he asked, so I will tell you what I told him, and I do it with the possibility of looking stupid, but I do it before the event so that whatever the result I can not be accused of making it up.

When the first serious polls began about this time last year they were giving the No campaign 20 to 22 per cent leads. I wrote a book on electoral systems six years ago that no one has any interest in and hasn't been published, but in it I explained and analysed seven electoral systems and explained and detailed the five systems that are used in the UK. As a result, I have detailed analysis of all the most recent elections. The first polls struck me as fantastic in that they were completely at odds with real election results within a Scottish context and I couldn't see how they could reflect Scottish opinion. I returned to my data and began watching the successive polls and I reached a conclusion round about last Christmas that the three Westminster parties were in collusion with the press and the polling organisations to inflate the No poll data and deflate the Yes.

Now I do not wish to appear as some kind of conspiracy theorist, but I reached that conclusion on my own, and fully accept that it may be completely wrong. However, I thought about it and concluded that they were distorting the figures by a factor of some ten percent. I will not bore you with a lot of figures but to explain my position, in 2011 the SNP polled 1,779336 votes and the combined votes of the three Westminster parties were 1,937,825. The SNP won 45.4% of the constituency vote and 44% of the regional vote whilst the three Westminster parties combined won 53.5% of the constituency vote and 43.9% of the regional. Thus in terms of votes the combined three Westminster parties only outpolled the SNP on its own by less than 200,000 votes, under 9% of the constituency vote, and actually less than the SNP's regional vote. So, where did a 20 point poll lead come from?

Now, those figures do not include the Greens for example, who are supporters of Yes. So, although this is a crude estimation, even on those figures above, how on earth can you conclude that the Scottish people have moved so far from the most recent empirical evidence to produce a 20 to 22 percent disparity. It simply does not make sense to me. As a result, I erred on the side of caution and assumed a 10% poll lead for Better Together, which, on the evidence of the last election is generous, and concluded that the remaining 10% was fraudulent. On that basis, when I made my 57% prediction on this blog, four polls had given Yes 47%, thus my 57% conclusion.

I am, if nothing else, a mine of useless information and I hope, if not instructive, at least amusing. We shall know tomorrow.

Your Servant
Doktor Kommirat 

Its the economy, stupid

The following is a quote by Will Hutton the English economist in this weeks Observer analysing the reasons for the impetus behind support for the Yes campaign

English Toryism's infatuation with a libertarianism that denies  obligations to society and each other, has abandoned justice and equity in its public policy positions and is the author of the great "cashing out" of the past 30 years. All our utilities, five million council houses, many of our great companies and swaths of real estate in our cities have been cashed out in the name of market forces, of liberalisation, of being open for business and wealth generation. What has been created is predator capitalism, massive inequality and a society organised to benefit the top 1%.

As I told you in my last post, the referendum is the lasting legacy of Thatcher and here Hutton admits that the dominant ideology denies our obligations to society and each other, which was exactly what Thatcher hoped to achieve by her statement that there is no such thing as society. In addition, he tells us they have also abandoned justice and equity. What irritates me about such things is that I have been writing this for years and have written it repeatedly since beginning this blog, so, why has it taken people like Hutton all this time to understand it? Now, one of the great lies about modern Britain is that we are implementing an economic programme that was founded by the great economists such as Adam Smith who established the discipline of economics; that Smith was the father of free market laissez faire economics and what we are being exposed to is the fundamental assumptions of classical economics for which there is no alternative. This is of course total garbage.

It was Adam Smith who wrote that "the prevalence of injustice must utterly destroy society" and we are indeed witnessing Britain being destroyed, but it is not the Scots who are doing this, it is an unjust and grossly unequal economic system. In addition, Smith never mentions either 'the free market' or 'laissez faire' and such concepts did not appear in his writings. He argued for free trade, but not for what is now termed the free market. So, our dominant economic model is a fraud. If you do want to argue from Smith's writings then you will need to accept that the appalling injustice we see throughout the UK is literally destroying that society. Why does no-one ever quote Smith in that context? Libertarianism is a denial of our social nature and has produced a distorted and bastardised economics that has spawned an equally distorted political structure to protect it as it loots the national treasury and impoverishes whole communities and groups of its own citizens.

This is what Westminster and the Better Together campaign cannot, and indeed will not, understand. The engine of independence is a rejection of the dominant economic, social and political order and a demand for a new economics and politics in order to heal a seriously damaged social system. Regardless of the outcome of Thursday's vote ( and I am still predicting a 57% Yes) the divisions destroying our society will not and cannot be healed until we adopt a new political and economic model. There can be no recovery or healing with the present system and personnel in Westminster. You have been warned

Your Servant
Doktor Kommirat.

The Scottish Referendum - The lasting legacy of Thatcher

I was speaking to a friend who expressed bemusement when I mentioned how the referendum was the natural outcome of Thatcherism. "Aw surely you canny blame Maggie for that?" was the response, and I confess I was equally bemused that someone could not accept what to me is blindingly obvious.

The referendum is the enduring legacy of the esteemed Mrs Thatcher. She would hate to have been accused of that, but she is without doubt the guilty party. Thatcher ushered in the economic policies and doctrines of free market neoliberalism, an ideology that brooks no constraints on its activities and repeatedly tells us that there is no alternative to it. The claim that there is no alternative originated from Thatcher herself. As I have indicated before, if there is no alternative to something then it must be true. Thus, if you believe in Thatcher's economic and political ideology then you are the guardian of the truth and everyone else is by definition wrong. This is of course a totalitarian perspective. Thus, armed with the sword of truth, Thatcher and her disciples proceeded to embark on a holy crusade with a ruthlessness not hitherto witnessed in British political life.

If you oppose the truth you are by definition either a heretic and evil, or an ignoramus who deserves nothing but contempt and to be ignored or silenced. Thus, Thatcher and her minions never saw opponents in either political or intellectual life, they only saw enemies, the unions, the left, and most importantly the Scots with their 'benefits culture' the stereotypical scroungers and skivers who persistently voted Labour and persistently opposed her reforms of the industrial structure which of course meant large-scale unemployment and poverty in Scotland.

The Conservative Party thus developed an abiding hatred of the Scots and determined to punish them at every opportunity. This attitude became even more entrenched following 1997 and the purging of the Conservative Party from any seats in Parliament. However, they need not have feared as the effects of their policies in Scotland were continued under Labour who embraced the neoliberal agenda with a gusto. What helped to save Scotland was the establishment of the Scottish Parliament and it was this experience that has led directly to the referendum. The Scots have had it demonstrated that they can have a better and fairer society, that there is an alternative and that they have been persistently and systematically lied to. I am always amused when I see the statue of Donald Dewar proclaiming him the father of the nation. I remember Dewar in the 1979 referendum outside the Central Station in Glasgow every morning during the referendum campaign desperately encouraging passers-by to reject devolution. He was one of the staunchest opponents of any form of Scottish devolution. Labour only came round to the concept of devolution when their dominance in Scotland was challenged by the SNP and Dewar obediently switched to being a supporter of devolution when Blair told him to. Devolution would be the weapon to stop the nationalists in their tracks, devolution would kill the impetus for independence. They even designed an electoral system to make certain that the SNP would never be able to form a government. However, I remind you what I told you yesterday, the difference between being in politics and actually understanding it, because the electoral system delivered exactly the opposite to what they expected, much to their astonishment, and they haven't yet worked out how it happened. What the Labourites never factored in was the Scots realisation that Labour was as bad as the Tories and that the Scots would actually vote for an alternative, an alternative that so far has been met with a tolerant acceptance by the Scottish electorate.So, Labour must never be trusted on anything, they are completely unscrupulous. Always remember, poverty, foodbanks, zero-hours contracts, privatisation of the health service are all as much to blame on Labour as the Tories.

The referendum is the logical outcome of the process Thatcher started in 1979 and pursued by all governments since. The Scots have had enough of the Westminster neoliberal experiment in poverty, inequality that is a scandal in the modern world, the demonization of the poor, the sick, the disabled etc. and most of all of the Scots, the sponging, whingeing Jocks. You should be proud and as I trust you can see from all of the UK media, there are very few people who actually understand what has happened, you have confounded them all. But do not be complacent and do not trust any Westminster personnel, they are not on your side. You have been warned.

Your Servant
Doktor Kommirat

I am afraid the left are bereft

Let me start here by stating that politics is the art of compromise. In addition, there is a big difference between studying current affairs and studying politics. Politics is also much more than winning elections and a successful study of politics necessarily involves understanding the subject matter of politics, people and how they make decisions. What comprises the biggest barrier to a proper understanding of politics is ideology, because ideology produces inflexibility in people and an unwillingness to compromise. That is the major commonality between the left and the right. As both left and right draw their sustenance and their certainties from ideological positions, they both proclaim 'the truth' which gives rise to politicians endlessly parroting that what they are doing is the right thing to do.

I have always had a lot of respect for people from the committed left of the political spectrum because I have always found that they are thinkers and are drawn to politics mostly from altruistic motives. However, as they immerse themselves in politics they get drawn into ideological positions and tend to lose sight of why they entered politics in the first place, and I am saddened by the left's hostile opposition to independence. I have been discussing the referendum with various friends who are all on the left, and was speaking with a communist this morning, and I have to say that their arguments lack any coherence; they don't make sense. The proper left are all committed to rejecting independence and remaining in the union. The best known of these spokespeople is George Galloway and what they are arguing is, in effect to continue with a system of austerity, foodbanks, benefit cuts, zero-hours contracts etc. Of course they are totally opposed to any of these things, but they don't have any solutions to offer as they are not prepared to compromise. The only solution they offer is a non-existent class solidarity with working people in the rest of the UK, the very same people who are increasingly turning, not to the left, but to the far right and UKIP. In other words, they are still waiting for the revolution which is always just over the horizon. You see, a No vote is a vote for the Tories because even if Labour win in 2015 they are already committed to the Tories austerity programme. A No vote is a vote for change all right, but the kind of change that should frighten any intelligent person.

The committed left are purists, they are the political equivalent of the Jehovah's Witnesses. They demand all or nothing and every hint at a compromise is regarded as a betrayal, as a sell-out of principle. I have been repeatedly told that I am betraying the working class by voting Yes, which is quite ridiculous. Theirs is the politics of tunnel vision and it is sad, because it is a betrayal of politics, an activity they regard themselves as masters of, when in reality they have not even begun to understand it. They curiously argue the same contradictory position as UKIP, a virulent hostility to one union, the EU, and a demand for  a different union within UK.   The left are fixated with Alex Salmond and the SNP and do not seem to grasp that in an independent Scotland, if Salmond does indeed govern as they think he will, he can easily be voted out, whereas it has been graphically demonstrated since the Second World War that it matters not a jot to Westminster what the Scottish electorate do. What we have in Westminster is three neoliberal parties all vying for the permission to govern over an economic system that has demonstrably failed. There is no choice on offer there but that is what the George Galloway's of the world want us to choose, between bad and worse.

What ideologues cannot grasp is that change has to be incremental, it has to be at a pace that the general public can accept and absorb. Change on the scale of national independence must be governed by baby steps because the public who are not obsessed by politics must understand the change, why it is happening and what its implications are or they will not accept it. Too rapid change brings a sense of dislocation, what sociologists call anomie. If we do get a Yes vote then following independence major change, indeed any change, will have to be implemented slowly, carefully, and with the maximum of explanation as possible. This is the major difference between being political and understanding politics. It is no use arguing with someone who is ideologically committed, they are impenetrable. My communist friend is a lovely person who despises the Tories but is, in reality going to not only vote with them next week, but vote for them. By voting Yes next week I will be compromising, and that is the only real choice we have because the status quo is no longer an option, that is politics.You have been warned.

Your Servant
Doktor Kommirat

Self-serving parasites, call their bluff!

I have been motivated to post by the undisguised bullying and scaremongering coming from the Better Together camp today. They have quite genuinely neither self-respect nor decency. We are being told that businesses will relocate, that it will stop raining for a year and that President Putin will send Spetznatz squads to annexe Glasgow so that the Russian team can use Hampden as a decent training ground if we vote yes (well I can invent stuff too, but my inventions are actually more plausible than what we are getting from the No people). As to the notion that firms like Standard Life will move their headquarters, so what? I mean that seriously. These people are capitalist financiers, that is their business. As to their character, they are shameless, devoid of any decency or morals. They exist in an ethical wilderness and if they dropped ten pence into a 100 gallon drum of human excrement they would immediately dive in headfirst to recover it without a moments hesitation. Should they decide to reform their business in the event of a Yes vote they will leave a gap in the market that will be immediately filled by another set of shameless predators who will sense an opportunity. That is the nature of modern neoliberal free marketeers. In other words they will never be missed. Having said that, they won't go in the first place, why? because there will still be lots of profits to be made in an independent Scotland.

But if they are serious then let them all go. Capitalism, like nature, abhors a vacuum and if one appears to be being created then something will rush in to fill the void. You must never lose sight of the fact that you are dealing with people who have no scruples, no dignity, no self-respect and no loyalties other than to their own bank account. If I had any position within the Yes campaign I would meet with such people as Standard Life, RBS, British Petroleum and Lloyds and tell them that if I received one more threat I would immediately revoke their licence to trade and their certification. They would be banned from a market of over 5 million people and I would invite other people to take up their positions. Actually, if I were in power I would nationalise these parasites. The British elite and its financial captains are the genuine scum of the earth, they are bullies who have to be confronted. Indeed, if we do vote Yes, watch the ruthlessness with which they respond, but, as I said, they are bullies and therefore cowards and we should not fear them. We should never put the future of our country in their hands or submit to their intimidation.

As to jobs, I have posted before how the largest potential employer in the UK is local government. By regenerating local government and returning its functions I am confident we could eliminate unemployment within two years. You see, all of the scenarios highlighted by Westminster and its festering scoundrels are predicated on the economic model that has failed us spectacularly but is still the only one on offer. If we adopt a different economic model with different goals and structures we would have our future in our own hands. I remind you, Britain was a capitalist and wealthy country before Thatcher, but its wealth was more evenly divided and was more equitable even if it was still deeply unequal. I leave you with a quote from JK Galbraith "The modern conservative is engaged in one of man's oldest exercises in moral philosophy; that is, the search for a superior moral justification for selfishness." and he was writing about a set of conservatives that would make this lot look like Marxists, and I include Labour in my definition of conservatives. These people are totally self-serving, they don't care one jot for Scotland or its people or its future. Don't be fooled, don't be feart, as Dylan tells us, don't follow leaders and watch for parking meters. You have been warned

Your Servant
Doktor Kommirat

Better Together, an object lesson in hubris

It now looks as though Scotland will deliver a Yes vote in the referendum, I am predicting a 57% Yes vote, although I hope I am wrong and it is even higher. If Scotland does vote Yes then the entire Westminster establishment will experience the stinging sensation that the Greeks called hubris. What this means that they will have been brought low by their own insufferable arrogance and vanity. The three Westminster party leaders have suddenly discovered Scotland, indeed they have discovered a hitherto alien concept, democracy. On Channel Four news tonight, David Cameron told us that he and Miliband are coming up to Scotland tomorrow and they are going to listen to people. I ask you to think about that. He has been Prime Minister for over four years now, and the referendum campaign is two years old. He has now decided, nine days before the vote, that he will have to start listening. Imagine admitting that on national television. If that is not the ultimate in arrogance I don't know what is. It is only bettered by its stupidity. I ask you again, how on earth do people like that get elected into public office? Regardless of the outcome of the referendum, even if the No vote prevails, Better Together will have to contemplate squandering a 22 point lead in the polls if the result is as close as is expected.

Having been advised by all their own experts to include an enhanced devolution option in the referendum Westminster ignored them in the arrogant belief that the Scots were too feart, to wee, and too thick to even think about abandoning what the Westminster geniuses have been calling the greatest and most successful union in human history. Their confidence today is revealed by the fact that they have sent for Gordon Brown to spearhead a desperate fightback against the Yes momentum. This man is not a member of the government, he does not even sit on the Shadow Cabinet. He is a has been, and a failure of Olympian proportions. He has hardly been seen in Westminster since he stormed off in the huff after losing the last election. He is one of the principal culprits in the project to turn the Labour Party into a more right wing party than the Tories. He told a public meeting in Fife today that he intends to protect our jobs and health care, its a wonder his tongue doesn't shrivel up and fall out of his mouth. You have to sit and wonder about the total absence of any shame people like that display. Indeed, Simon Jenkins, a died in the wool member of the British Establishment, a right-wing columnist and Chairman of the National Trust tells us today in the Guardian that we would be off our heads to trust anything these people tell us or promise us, that is what I told you two days ago.

Hubris is a concept you ignore at your peril, but, as I continually tell you, we make the grievous mistake of thinking that, because people like Brown, Blair, Darling, Cameron, Miliband etc. rise to the top of politics that they are also intelligent. Sly and cunning is not the same as intelligent. Intelligent people do not need to continually lie and deceive, they do not need to avoid answering questions, they do not need to spin. Liars, crooks and scoundrels need to mask their intentions, need to deceive and cheat, need to survive on arrogance and a contempt for everyone who is not of their class, their school or their club. Westminster has been found out, and they have been found out by the Scottish people challenging them and finding that they are indeed empty and lacking in any form or substance. If he hadn't done so much damage in government I could almost feel sorry for Alistair Darling as he is a truly pathetic excuse for a politician. He is finding out the meaning of hubris, I hope it serves him well. You have been warned.

Your Servant
Doktor Kommirat